Reading Surf Forecasts: But how do I know if it’s going to be good?
This article is part 4 of a series about reading surf forecasts. Here are the first, second and third articles.
We surfers have one goal — finding out when and where the best waves in our travel radius are going to be and making sure we’re there to surf them.
We have one primary tool to accomplish this goal — the surf forecast. The question then is “How do I translate a surf forecast into a decision about when and where to surf?”.
I’m going to make it real easy on you — to increase your chances of making a good decision about where and when to surf, you must keep track of which conditions you like the most at each spot within your travel radius.
This is easy to say but difficult to do. There are an infinite number of possible combinations of conditions at any one spot and throw in the fact that the bottom of the ocean changes (especially at beach breaks) and it’s enough to make you want to throw out your mini simmons and take up fishing (this would be a mistake, fishing is just as bad in this respect).
Why is this the best way?
Wave quality is subjective
The most vivid illustration of this is the difference between a wave that shortboarders prefer vs. a wave that longboarders prefer — in general, shortboarders prefer steeper, pitchier waves whereas longboarders prefer rollier, slopier waves.
But it goes deeper — your skill level will determine the height at which waves switch from fun to terrifying. Beginners aren’t going to have a good time in 6–8 foot surf but intermediates might.
Different people have different preferences for the kinds of waves they like to surf and so you need to figure out what conditions result in your favorite kinds of waves.
Every spot reacts to different conditions differently
Waves in shallow water are greatly affected by the ocean floor. Since each spot has a different floor each spot will look different given the same swell. A spot that’s completely dead might have beautiful 5 feet A-frames coming in right next to it.
This means that conditions alone can’t tell you what the surf is going to be like. You also have to factor in the ocean floor at the spots you like to surf at. This becomes especially important at beachbreaks where the ocean floor can change drastically in a short period of time.
Nearshore forecast models are not great
Forecasts at individual spots are often incorrect. Predicting what a swell will do at a specific spot close to shore is incredibly difficult. Good on them for trying but the sites that do this are often wrong and so you shouldn’t rely on them for all of your information.
Instead, focus on offshore forecasts models like WaveWatch III (see the Stormsurf visualization of this model here) — these tend to be forecast models that are generated by large organizations or governments and have many billions of dollars relying on them to be correct. It is still a prediction and so can be off but they tend to be more accurate than the nearshore models.
For current data focus on the closest ocean buoy. You can find a map of all the NOAA buoys here. If you’re outside the U.S. you might have a hard time finding public buoy information but give it a try because it’s worth it — buoys provide real data unlike forecasts which are predictions. They are your best bet for figuring out what the surf is currently like.
You won’t need cams
Spot cams are great. I’ve got a bunch bookmarked and I check them quite often. Unfortunately so does everyone else in Southern California.
If you don’t have any friends, wait till a good looking swell hits La Jolla Shores and paddle on out. It’s the only networking event where you won’t be able to tell if someone is peeing while you’re talking to them.
If you have enough friends then keep track of the conditions at a spot without any cams on it and paddle out when you know it’s good. You might even have it to yourself.
If I’ve convinced you that keeping track of conditions at your local spots is worth the trouble then the next question is “how should I do this?” — and the answer is use an app, or Google Sheets, or a physical notebook, or any other tool that allows you to write this information down, then try to find trends in the data. Your favorite spot might work best when the swell is 3–5 ft from 255°-275° with no wind — be one of the few that knows this sort of information and you’ll greatly increase your chances of scoring great surf.
Lazy Surfer is the only personalized surf forecasting tool. Download for free today — lazysurfer.app